Why the Americans WILL advance to the knockout stages

OK, take a deep breath everyone. It’s not as bad as it seems.

 

Sure, this is not a favorable group for the United States on paper. Heck, there were many other combinations that would have had American supporters reaching for the air-sick bag (could you imagine playing in Group B in Australia’s place, having to face world champion Spain, runner-up Holland and Chile?). The fact that the U.S. will only have to play Ghana, Portugal, and Germany should leave American fans happy.

 

Sure, you’re shaking your head, thinking I’m nuts. But if you breathe deeply and come to a rational line of thought, this group certainly isn’t impossible. Hard, yes. It’s supposed to be hard. It’s not supposed to be easy. If it were easy, it would be American football. But I digress.

 

Let’s face it: We’re not beating Germany. No way, no how, nuh uh. I don’t see them losing in the group, to be honest (somewhere in West Fitchburg, Fitchburg State men’s soccer coach Werner Thissen is nodding along, smiling wide). Sure, the U.S. beat Germany at RFK, 4-3, back in June. Yep. They did. But let’s put that match in its proper context: It came against Germany’s B squad. Yep, a win against Germany’s JV team. There’s no way the Americans will beat the varsity, with Mertesacker, Podolski, Klose, Steinschweiger, and Ozil lining up on the other half of the pitch. Put that in the L column. That means the USA has to take care of its business in the first two matches.

 

Ghana. Ghana, Ghana, Ghana. It’s like a Groundhog Day nightmare, isn’t it?

 

We can beat Ghana. Repeat it to yourselves over and over and over again until it is engrained in your memory. The United States can beat Ghana. Yes, Michael Essien is a threat, Asamoah Gyan (he who beat the US almost single-handedly in 2010) should be playing in a top league, and Sulley Muntari is a talisman in the middle of the park. Ghana has beaten us twice. It is a skilled team, there’s no doubt about it.

 

But so is the United States of America.

 

The only reason why Ghana beat the United States in 2010 is because the American back line didn’t react in time to stop an unmarked Gyan from scoring the match winner three minutes into extra time. They played well up until that point. After that, it was a long, hard uphill slog for 27 minutes. And yes, Ghana nipped the Yanks in 2006.

 

The third time has to be the charm, right?

 

The good thing about this go-around with Ghana is that there won’t be extra time: It’ll be the first group-stage match, and it’s only 90 minutes. Possess the ball, play attacking football, and free up Jozy Altidore to get the team out front early should be the keys to the match.

 

Portugal, of course. When Portugal came out of Pot 4 seventh, I closed my eyes and swore. The reason, of course, is the same reason everyone else swore at that exact moment: Cristiano Ronaldo, one of the top five players in the world, would be going up against the United States. As an aside, I privately wondered if Stonehill College SID Doug Monson would root for the referees in that match. Long story.

 

Portugal is, in all seriousness, a one-man team. It starts and ends with CR7. There is Nani, yes, a Manchester United playmaker (but if you’ve followed Man United at all this season, you know how rubbish they are), but it all revolves around Ronaldo. Take him out of the picture with solid defending, and victory can be obtained. Do the same thing you did against Ghana, and let the world know the United States won’t be overlooked.

 

And don’t forget: the U.S. beat Portugal, 3-2, in the 2002 World Cup group stage. Can lightning strike twice? Anything is possible in football!

 

If the Americans can grab four points (a win against Ghana, a draw against Portugal) in their first two matches in the group—a big if, but work with me here—it can lead to this scenario heading into the June 26 game against Germany:

 

Germany 6

USA 4

Portugal 1

Ghana 0

 

A Ghana-Portugal draw while the Germans are annihilating the Americans wouldn’t be enough for Portugal to advance: a draw is worth one point, and four points is definitely greater than two.

 

A win against Portugal, though, would put the U.S. at 6 points, tied with Germany, and it wouldn’t matter what Portugal does against Ghana: the U.S. and Germany would advance, Ronaldo would cry like a little baby after yet another early World Cup exit, and the Americans would have finally achieved revenge against the Ghanians.

 

(And then we’d probably get routed by the Belgians or the Russians, but let’s cross that bridge when we get to it.)

 

It’s nice to be an eternal optimist, isn’t it?

A 40-nation World Cup? No, just... no

I had originally planned on talking about Michel Platini's proposal to expand the World Cup from its current 32-nation set-up to a 40-nation set-up, but something else piqued my interest Monday morning, and I got sidetracked. Things like this happen.

No. Let's not even entertain the notion of it. A 40-nation World Cup, at first glance, sounds ridiculous. Platini's plan would add two teams from Africa, two from Asia, two from the Americas, one from Oceania, and one from Europe. Sure, it gets more national teams into our festival of football. Everyone wants to be a part of it. But there are so many questions to be answered that it just makes me wonder if exploring it is a huge waste of time.

How would qualifying work? How much drama of the playoffs--especially in Europe--is taken away, or how much is added? And, most importantly in my eyes, how would the group stages and subsequent knock-out rounds work?

There are two ways for the group stages to work. Eight groups of five would turn the World Cup into a glorified UEFA Group I, where one team has a bye through each go around. If FIFA wants to go with this, it would have to consider expanding play during the group stages from two games to three per day to get all of the group stage matches in during the normal group time. An 8x5 setup would keep the knockouts the same, with each group winner and runner-up moving on.

A 10x4 would keep things the way they are in the group stages save giving each national team an extra two days of rest between matches. But where it would give the mathematical headaches--yet may create more drama--is next on the docket: Surely the group stage winners, all 10, would move on... but how many second-place nations move on? Do the six best second-place nations move on, and how will everything be seeded from that point?

As for qualifying, would the second through ninth second-place teams in UEFA take part in the playoffs, with the top second-place team automatically advancing to the World Cup (which would account for Platini's extra European nation)? Do we even have interconfederation playoffs? Are we saying, "Top Four of CONCACAF, book your tickets. Top Five of CONMEBOL, book yours. Oceania, have at it. No Asian playoffs, just the two third-place teams advance." And for Africa, are we adding two additional home-and-away ties... but how? Do you have the second-place teams during the group stages all go into a pot and have playoffs that way?

If FIFA wants to do something like this for the 2018 World Cup, it would have to be a hurried format change: qualification essentially begins some 20 months away from now with the qualifying draw. This isn't something that should take 20 months to decide on: it needs rational thought and input from more than just Michel Platini. If anything, make your change for 2022 after it's been thought about for more than just a few minutes.

I mean, why fix something that is clearly not broken?

Why the Red Bulls have won everything

Last night, Philly sportswriter Jonathan Tannenwald jokingly Tweeted that he couldn't wait to read the New York Times' "four-sentence wire recap" about the New York Red Bulls winning the 2013 Supporters' Shield. I laughed, I reTweeted.

Then I saw the story this morning. While it wasn't four sentences, and while it wasn't a wire recap (the Times actually sent a reporter), it was certainly a back-handed rip job right from the first line.

"The Red Bulls have won nothing," wrote Times sportswriter Jack Bell.

Au contraire, Mr. Bell. The Red Bulls, as much as it pains this Revolution supporter to admit it, have won everything.

In an attempt to "Americanize" the sport of soccer/football, MLS has postseason playoffs in order to decide a league champion. Sure, that's all well and good, and it's a way to try and gain non-soccer fans into watching the drama unfold, and potentially keep them as fans as the 18-year-old league continues to grow.

But to those who follow world football, the conversation should have ended last night. And yes, there was plenty of drama--Houston playing for its playoff life and forcing the Revolution to match them, to the Revolution dealing with a minimum of eight minutes' stoppage time, to Lloyd Sam's brilliant curler that was eventually the game-winner--and Supporters' Shield-clinching--goal for the Red Bulls.

For the uninitiated that may happen to come across this blog, the Supporters' Shield is awarded to the team that has accumulated the most points over the course of the league's 34 (and soon to rise)-game season. It is akin to the trophy handed out at the end of the Barclay's Premier League, the Calcio Serie A, La Liga, etc.

And that's where it should end. Period.

The top leagues around the world do not have playoffs (their immediate lower counterparts do, for purposes of promotion), and the season ends with the team that has accumulated the most points (or, in MLS's case of a tie, the most wins, then most goals scored, etc.) winning the league title. And if MLS wants to be acknowledged as a top league around the world, then it must start doing things the proper way. If anything, let the Red Bulls celebrate the Shield and leave them out of the playoffs; they've done their part and have already secured a spot in the CONCACAF Champions League. Make the playoffs as a decider for the final two spots in the continental tourney. Now....

Will I watch the playoffs? Of course I will. I'm a soccer/football fan. I'd love to see my Revs make a nifty run and get a shot at playing club football at a higher, continental level again (it would be nice, but I'm not holding my breath just yet). If anything, the winner of MLS Cup should only be deemed the postseason playoff champion, not the champion of the entire league. That has already been decided by the traditional methods of football, end of story.

Congrats, Red Bulls. You have won everything, and no one--not even the New York Times--can take that away from you.

Revs are IN, Chicago out

If New England Revolution manager Jay Heaps wanted his lads to get a little more practice playing defense, he got his wish Sunday afternoon.

And while he got his wish, Revs’ supporters got their long-awaited wish, too.

Thanks to a nifty Juan Agudelo goal in the 28^th minute, the Revolution laid claim to their first MLS playoff berth in four years with a 1-0 win over the Crew in Columbus.

Sunday’s win came about as an ugly advert for the game of soccer. There was little in the way of possession, with looping 50-50 balls that slowed the pace. While New England looked disjointed in attack, Columbus had a majority of the possession when anyone had it, and came out on the front foot.

But New England, which needed the victory after Houston beat D.C. United, 2-1, in the early contest to claim its own playoff spot, got the goal it needed, and did it against the run of play to boot. Agudelo’s cheeky back heel to Lee Nguyen saw the ball come right back to him with a one-touch pass, and the Stoke City-bound striker slotted home with the match’s lone goal.

In the latter stages, Columbus kept the pressure on Revs goalkeeper Matt Reis, who came up with several big stops during second-half stoppage time to keep the Crew out of the net.

Less than an hour later, New England found out that it would play U.S. International Graham Zusi and Sporting Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs after the New York Red Bulls claimed the Supporters’ Shield with a 5-2 win over the Chicago Fire. In two prior meetings, Sporting won both—but at the time, the Revs didn’t have Agudelo.

That game will be at Gillette Stadium this Saturday at a time TBA. With UMass hosting Northern Illinois in football that afternoon, the Revs-SKC match will more than likely be an evening affair.

Eastern Conference Top Five
1. New York
2. Sporting Kansas City
3. NEW ENGLAND
4. Houston
5. Montreal

The Single Most Important Revs Match In Recent History is today

It's not outside the realm of possibility to imagine a scenario where New England Revolution manager Jay Heaps implements a strict no-checking-of-scores-today policy over the course of the next 11 hours or so. Today, of course, is the last day of the 2013 MLS regular season, and the Revs are in a position to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2009.

The Western Conference has already settled its playoff spots. The Eastern Conference playoff picture grew increasingly clearer yesterday, when Sporting Kansas City knocked Philadelphia out of contention. Four teams are competing for the final three spots in the Eastern Conference--and only three of those four are in action today. Those four teams--Montreal, Chicago, New England, and Houston--are separated by a single, solitary point.

That said, today's match with the Columbus Crew in the Buckeye State is, most definitely, The Single Most Important Revs Match In Recent History. Here's why.

Coming into today, Montreal sits in third but is idle today, having lost to Toronto, 1-nil, yesterday. They will be checking scores violently, having their playoff lives decided for them.

We have to presume that Chicago (14 wins), New England (13), and Houston (13) are going to play to win their matches today, especially with total wins representing the first tie breaking decider. Get ready to break out your calculators, because this is where the nervousness begins.


Houston will be the first team to know if it is in the playoffs or not, as they take on DC United in the nation's capital at 1:30 p.m. ET. Houston, sitting sixth on 48 points, must win today, and hope either Chicago or New England lose or draw, in order to qualify. A loss to the US Open Cup champions (and it hurt to type that) will knock it out completely. A win would take them to 51 points, moving Montreal to fourth, Chicago to fifth, and New England to sixth, temporarily. A loss or a draw, and you'll hear a mighty sigh of relief coming from Montreal. A Houston win, a Chicago win and a New England win will push Montreal out. A draw against DC may not do it any good, either. A draw would put Houston at 49 points--and then they'd need help from Columbus. Simply put: whatever happens between 1:30 p.m. and 3:30 p.m. today

The Revs are sitting fifth on 48 points. They need to play to win--regardless if Houston wins or loses (and going back to my earlier theory, will anyone tell them the result until 6 p.m.?). Of course, a Houston loss would automatically qualify the Revolution for the fifth and final playoff spot in the East. But let's say, just for giggles and grins, Columbus and the Revs draw, and Houston draws with DC. Both would be on 49, and both would have 13 wins. The second tie-breaker is Goals For. Currently, New England is at 48, while Houston is at 39. And since the odds of Houston and DC drawing by a score of 9-9 are highly improbable, New England would get the berth.

I don't see New England losing this one. Yes, Columbus has nothing to play for except for pride, a tough adversary with which to deal. The Revs players know how much today means for their supporters, who have gone through so much toil and heartbreak over the last four years. Seeing their way into the playoffs will give their supporters hope--and while it may be false hope, especially with the way New York, Sporting, and Portland are playing, any hope will be a good thing for these supporters. They want to see this football club doing something after languishing in-or-near the EC basement the last couple of years.

We're kind of forgetting about Chicago in all of this. The Fire are in the middle, and they are focused on New York as they should be. And while Chicago has to play like its playoff life is in the balance (which it is), New York also has something with which to play--the Supporter's Shield. A win against Chicago will see the Red Bulls to 59 points, nipping Sporting Kansas City by a point and pipping the Shield. A Chicago loss, coupled with a New England win and a Houston win, would knock the Fire out.  A Chicago win would put the Fire third on 52 points. Of course, whatever Houston does is the trigger for everything else today.

Where will everyone finish? Who knows. Everything to gain or lose happens today.

Bring. It. On.

World Cup qualifiers come to a head Tuesday

Tuesday is the day.

 

Tuesday is the day that quite a bit will be sorted out in the race for World Cup qualification, as seven of the 12 remaining automatic qualifiers will be decided and the playoffs for both UEFA and the interconfederations will come into clearer focus.

 

The United States, of course, has already punched its ticket for Brazil, its seventh consecutive trip to the festival of football. So too has Costa Rica. Honduras was only minutes away from qualifying for its second consecutive World Cup on Friday night, before Raul Jimenez gave Mexico a desperately-needed lifeline with a brilliant bicycle kick goal that made SportsCenter’s top play of the night.

 

As it stands, Honduras (14 points in the CONCACAF Hexagonal) only needs to attain a draw against Jamaica Tuesday night in order to secure qualification. Mexico, as the fourth-place side on 11 points, would only have to draw against Costa Rica in order to advance to the playoff against New Zealand, which would essentially be a free pass to the World Cup.

 

But Mexico, which looked dead and buried after Panama scored, is hoping that it can beat Costa Rica while hoping that Jamaica pulls off an incredible upset—and get a three-goal swing in the process—in order to qualify automatically.

 

And what of Panama (8 points, fifth)? The Panamanians need luck in their corner if they’re to proceed to the playoff: Panama would have to beat the USA at home Tuesday (BeIN Sport, Ch. 192 on Comcast), hope Costa Rica beats Mexico, and hope to get a two-goal swing to erase the goal difference. That two-goal swing (beating the US by one and Costa Rica beating Mexico by one) would see Panama through to the playoff on goals scored.

 

Both scenarios are longshots: If Mexico and Costa Rica decided to park the bus and not attack for the win, whatever Panama does Tuesday would be for naught. Panama’s World Cup hopes essentially evaporated Friday night—but it does play the Americans tough at home. A loss for the USA wouldn’t harm it, but it could potentially harm Mexico. Stay tuned.

 

In South America, Ecuador and Chile are in the driver’s seat on 25 points apiece, and as luck would have it, the two nations play against each other Tuesday evening. Uruguay, sitting in the playoff spot, is on 22 points, and play already qualified Argentina.

 

Ecuador and Chile only need to draw in order for both to advance to the World Cup. Should that happen, and it’s a safe bet that it will, Uruguay would move on to the two-legged playoff against Jordan in November.

But should Uruguay beat Argentina, and Ecuador beat Chile, Uruguay would need a four-goal swing in order to advance automatically. Uruguay would need a six-goal swing should Chile beat Ecuador.

 

In Europe, four automatic slots are up for grabs in Groups F, G, H, and I.

 

In Group F, Russia (top, 21 points) only needs to draw against Azerbaijan in order to advance. Portugal (second, 18 points) would go to the playoff.

 

In Group G, Bosnia and Herzogovina (top, 22 points and a 17-goal lead in goal difference) are practically through, with Lithuania on tap Tuesday afternoon. A win would send it to the World Cup. For Greece (second, 22 points) to qualify automatically, it would need to put 18 goals more past the keeper than B-H does. Not gonna happen.

 

In Group H, England (top, 19 points) host already eliminated Poland at Wembley (2:45 p.m., Fox Sports 1, Ch. 250 on Comcast), where a win is essential for The Three Lions to book its place in Brazil. Ukraine (second, 18 points) plays lowly San Marino, and Ukraine will win that one just by walking off the bus. Montenegro, on the outside looking in, plays Moldova and is practically eliminated unless San Marino shocks the world.

 

Should Poland shock England, Ukraine would advance automatically and England would go to the playoffs.

 

And in Group I, Spain and France look to secure their spots. Spain hosts Georgia, while France hosts Finland. The world champions lead France by three points, and it is expected that Spain will dismantle the Georgians en route to booking its spot.

 

But should the unthinkable occur, France would need to beat Finland by four goals and hope Spain plays poorly and loses in order for France to advance.

 

Groups B, D, and E also have battles for playoff spots.

 

In Group B, Bulgaria, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Armenia are separated by one point, with Denmark holding the edge as it plays Malta Tuesday—and even then, it may not be enough.

 

In Group D, Turkey (16, +9), Romania (16, +5), and Hungary (14, -1) are all in contention: Turkey hosts the Dutch while Romania hosts Estonia and Hungary hosts Andorra. Turkey, despite its edge in goal difference over the other two, will need to hope Estonia and Andorra win on the trot while holding a potent Netherlands squad to go to the playoff.

 

In Group E, Iceland (16, +2) and Slovenia (15, +4) are in the running, with Iceland at Norway and Slovenia at already qualified Switzerland. A win for Iceland will see it through to the playoffs, while Slovenia hopes to beat the Swiss and hope Iceland lose or draw.

 

The playoffs in Europe are between the top eight second-place sides. But as one group, Group I, only has five nations while the other eight have six, matches for those groups are weighted: for instance, Group H’s matches against San Marino don’t count toward the second-place polling. At present, the Group B second-place side, Bulgaria, is on the outside looking in.

 

On October 21, the top eight sides will be drawn into a four two-legged ties to be played in November, with the winners on aggregate moving on to the World Cup.

 

Africa’s playoffs started this past weekend, and those are two-legged ties, as well. The second legs will take place in November, and the winners on aggregate will move on to the World Cup.

Revs out of US Open Cup. What's next?

The New England Revolution bowed out of the 100th U.S. Open Cup, 3-1, to D.C. United Wednesday evening. The Revs, coming off a bye week in the MLS schedule, played a good portion of its rested first team against United. The result was far from what was expected, seeing as DC is last in the Eastern Conference and the two sides battled to a scoreless draw only a couple of weeks ago. New England leaves the competition two rounds from silverware and the Promised Land.

The fact that the Revs made it this far after having poor showings in this competition the past few seasons should be considered a win to Revs supporters; I know there are some grinding their teeth over departing the competition. Sure, everyone wants a trophy (I'm reminded of this as an Arsenal supporter). Not everyone can. Challenging for one is, in my eyes, considered important, and the return to respectability should also be taken into account. The process of returning to respectability in Major League Soccer is a long one, and the Revolution are making strides toward that goal. Yes, this is me being the optimist. Debate that as you will.

Now, what next for New England?

The Revs sit seventh in the Eastern Conference, tied on points (20) with sixth-place Columbus. New England's recent form notwithstanding, it's the upcoming run-in which will test the Revs' mettle and, hopefully, give New England a solid run at the playoffs.

Revs run-in:

Saturday, at Chivas USA
July 6, home with San Jose
July 13, home with Houston
July 17, at Colorado
July 20, at Columbus
July 27, at DC United

The hope is that out of those 18 potential points, the Revs claiming 12 isn't out of the realm of possibility (Chivas should be a win on paper, should win at home; draws, at the very least, for those final three matches can be considered good results). Expecting 18 out of 18 over the course of the next 30 days is simply setting one's self up for disappointment. I'd be happy with nine points, even though it would set up a brutal August. Getting those 12 points should put New England in prime position for the dog days of summer and the final stretch of matches leading up to the playoffs.

We'll review in 31 days' time.

Why the Revs should consider a match at BU's Nickerson Field

Last night, the New England Revolution beat the New York Red Bulls, 4-2, in front of 2,500 at the small football pitch adjacent to Harvard Stadium. It was the club's first true foray inside the Route 128 belt, and by all indications, it was a rousing success: the club sold all of the tickets available, and the match was a W. The Revs move on to the fifth round in the US Open Cup, where they'll play DC United at, you guessed it, a small pitch outside of the Beltway on June 26.

Supporters have always wanted a soccer-specific stadium a little closer to Boston instead of playing in cavernous Gillette, a stadium that would have access to the T; this little SSS carrot is usually dangled in front of the supporters around season ticket renewal time, then disappears the rest of the season. Gillette doesn't have the access, and the MBTA doesn't extend Revs supporters the same courtesy as they do to Pats fans in the way of Commuter Rail service from South Station. There are always the logistical issues that come into play--where would they play in a cramped, nearly 400-year-old city?--and, in this typist's eyes, are used as excuses. Last night's "sell out" should show the Revs' front office that there is interest in the club inside the 128 belt, and that the time has come for the excuses to stop.

There is one stadium that could handle a Revs crowd, and would make a sell out much more palatable to the eyes.

It's called Nickerson Field. Perhaps you've heard of it?

Nickerson, on the BU campus, seats 10,419 or so: Four times as many as the little pitch off Soldier's Field Road, and if temporary seating is installed behind the goals, could be even larger. Has Green Line access--stop complaining about the Green Line; it's the line with the most character in the T's system--and isn't far from downtown. There is bus access. Parking sucks, but then again, parking sucks all over Boston. And right now, with the kids gone until Labor Day, it would be a perfect time to bring the world's game deeper into the city.

If the Harvard experiment was a test, the Revs and Revs' supporters passed it. It's now time to experiment further with a stadium that has held big games, and has easy access for the supporters.