World Cup qualifiers come to a head Tuesday

Tuesday is the day.

 

Tuesday is the day that quite a bit will be sorted out in the race for World Cup qualification, as seven of the 12 remaining automatic qualifiers will be decided and the playoffs for both UEFA and the interconfederations will come into clearer focus.

 

The United States, of course, has already punched its ticket for Brazil, its seventh consecutive trip to the festival of football. So too has Costa Rica. Honduras was only minutes away from qualifying for its second consecutive World Cup on Friday night, before Raul Jimenez gave Mexico a desperately-needed lifeline with a brilliant bicycle kick goal that made SportsCenter’s top play of the night.

 

As it stands, Honduras (14 points in the CONCACAF Hexagonal) only needs to attain a draw against Jamaica Tuesday night in order to secure qualification. Mexico, as the fourth-place side on 11 points, would only have to draw against Costa Rica in order to advance to the playoff against New Zealand, which would essentially be a free pass to the World Cup.

 

But Mexico, which looked dead and buried after Panama scored, is hoping that it can beat Costa Rica while hoping that Jamaica pulls off an incredible upset—and get a three-goal swing in the process—in order to qualify automatically.

 

And what of Panama (8 points, fifth)? The Panamanians need luck in their corner if they’re to proceed to the playoff: Panama would have to beat the USA at home Tuesday (BeIN Sport, Ch. 192 on Comcast), hope Costa Rica beats Mexico, and hope to get a two-goal swing to erase the goal difference. That two-goal swing (beating the US by one and Costa Rica beating Mexico by one) would see Panama through to the playoff on goals scored.

 

Both scenarios are longshots: If Mexico and Costa Rica decided to park the bus and not attack for the win, whatever Panama does Tuesday would be for naught. Panama’s World Cup hopes essentially evaporated Friday night—but it does play the Americans tough at home. A loss for the USA wouldn’t harm it, but it could potentially harm Mexico. Stay tuned.

 

In South America, Ecuador and Chile are in the driver’s seat on 25 points apiece, and as luck would have it, the two nations play against each other Tuesday evening. Uruguay, sitting in the playoff spot, is on 22 points, and play already qualified Argentina.

 

Ecuador and Chile only need to draw in order for both to advance to the World Cup. Should that happen, and it’s a safe bet that it will, Uruguay would move on to the two-legged playoff against Jordan in November.

But should Uruguay beat Argentina, and Ecuador beat Chile, Uruguay would need a four-goal swing in order to advance automatically. Uruguay would need a six-goal swing should Chile beat Ecuador.

 

In Europe, four automatic slots are up for grabs in Groups F, G, H, and I.

 

In Group F, Russia (top, 21 points) only needs to draw against Azerbaijan in order to advance. Portugal (second, 18 points) would go to the playoff.

 

In Group G, Bosnia and Herzogovina (top, 22 points and a 17-goal lead in goal difference) are practically through, with Lithuania on tap Tuesday afternoon. A win would send it to the World Cup. For Greece (second, 22 points) to qualify automatically, it would need to put 18 goals more past the keeper than B-H does. Not gonna happen.

 

In Group H, England (top, 19 points) host already eliminated Poland at Wembley (2:45 p.m., Fox Sports 1, Ch. 250 on Comcast), where a win is essential for The Three Lions to book its place in Brazil. Ukraine (second, 18 points) plays lowly San Marino, and Ukraine will win that one just by walking off the bus. Montenegro, on the outside looking in, plays Moldova and is practically eliminated unless San Marino shocks the world.

 

Should Poland shock England, Ukraine would advance automatically and England would go to the playoffs.

 

And in Group I, Spain and France look to secure their spots. Spain hosts Georgia, while France hosts Finland. The world champions lead France by three points, and it is expected that Spain will dismantle the Georgians en route to booking its spot.

 

But should the unthinkable occur, France would need to beat Finland by four goals and hope Spain plays poorly and loses in order for France to advance.

 

Groups B, D, and E also have battles for playoff spots.

 

In Group B, Bulgaria, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Armenia are separated by one point, with Denmark holding the edge as it plays Malta Tuesday—and even then, it may not be enough.

 

In Group D, Turkey (16, +9), Romania (16, +5), and Hungary (14, -1) are all in contention: Turkey hosts the Dutch while Romania hosts Estonia and Hungary hosts Andorra. Turkey, despite its edge in goal difference over the other two, will need to hope Estonia and Andorra win on the trot while holding a potent Netherlands squad to go to the playoff.

 

In Group E, Iceland (16, +2) and Slovenia (15, +4) are in the running, with Iceland at Norway and Slovenia at already qualified Switzerland. A win for Iceland will see it through to the playoffs, while Slovenia hopes to beat the Swiss and hope Iceland lose or draw.

 

The playoffs in Europe are between the top eight second-place sides. But as one group, Group I, only has five nations while the other eight have six, matches for those groups are weighted: for instance, Group H’s matches against San Marino don’t count toward the second-place polling. At present, the Group B second-place side, Bulgaria, is on the outside looking in.

 

On October 21, the top eight sides will be drawn into a four two-legged ties to be played in November, with the winners on aggregate moving on to the World Cup.

 

Africa’s playoffs started this past weekend, and those are two-legged ties, as well. The second legs will take place in November, and the winners on aggregate will move on to the World Cup.