Friday, December 6, 2013

Why the Americans WILL advance to the knockout stages

OK, take a deep breath everyone. It’s not as bad as it seems.
 
Sure, this is not a favorable group for the United States on paper. Heck, there were many other combinations that would have had American supporters reaching for the air-sick bag (could you imagine playing in Group B in Australia’s place, having to face world champion Spain, runner-up Holland and Chile?). The fact that the U.S. will only have to play Ghana, Portugal, and Germany should leave American fans happy.
 
Sure, you’re shaking your head, thinking I’m nuts. But if you breathe deeply and come to a rational line of thought, this group certainly isn’t impossible. Hard, yes. It’s supposed to be hard. It’s not supposed to be easy. If it were easy, it would be American football. But I digress.
 
Let’s face it: We’re not beating Germany. No way, no how, nuh uh. I don’t see them losing in the group, to be honest (somewhere in West Fitchburg, Fitchburg State men’s soccer coach Werner Thissen is nodding along, smiling wide). Sure, the U.S. beat Germany at RFK, 4-3, back in June. Yep. They did. But let’s put that match in its proper context: It came against Germany’s B squad. Yep, a win against Germany’s JV team. There’s no way the Americans will beat the varsity, with Mertesacker, Podolski, Klose, Steinschweiger, and Ozil lining up on the other half of the pitch. Put that in the L column. That means the USA has to take care of its business in the first two matches.
 
Ghana. Ghana, Ghana, Ghana. It’s like a Groundhog Day nightmare, isn’t it?
 
We can beat Ghana. Repeat it to yourselves over and over and over again until it is engrained in your memory. The United States can beat Ghana. Yes, Michael Essien is a threat, Asamoah Gyan (he who beat the US almost single-handedly in 2010) should be playing in a top league, and Sulley Muntari is a talisman in the middle of the park. Ghana has beaten us twice. It is a skilled team, there’s no doubt about it.
 
But so is the United States of America.
 
The only reason why Ghana beat the United States in 2010 is because the American back line didn’t react in time to stop an unmarked Gyan from scoring the match winner three minutes into extra time. They played well up until that point. After that, it was a long, hard uphill slog for 27 minutes. And yes, Ghana nipped the Yanks in 2006.
 
The third time has to be the charm, right?
 
The good thing about this go-around with Ghana is that there won’t be extra time: It’ll be the first group-stage match, and it’s only 90 minutes. Possess the ball, play attacking football, and free up Jozy Altidore to get the team out front early should be the keys to the match.
 
Portugal, of course. When Portugal came out of Pot 4 seventh, I closed my eyes and swore. The reason, of course, is the same reason everyone else swore at that exact moment: Cristiano Ronaldo, one of the top five players in the world, would be going up against the United States. As an aside, I privately wondered if Stonehill College SID Doug Monson would root for the referees in that match. Long story.
 
Portugal is, in all seriousness, a one-man team. It starts and ends with CR7. There is Nani, yes, a Manchester United playmaker (but if you’ve followed Man United at all this season, you know how rubbish they are), but it all revolves around Ronaldo. Take him out of the picture with solid defending, and victory can be obtained. Do the same thing you did against Ghana, and let the world know the United States won’t be overlooked.
 
And don’t forget: the U.S. beat Portugal, 3-2, in the 2002 World Cup group stage. Can lightning strike twice? Anything is possible in football!
 
If the Americans can grab four points (a win against Ghana, a draw against Portugal) in their first two matches in the group—a big if, but work with me here—it can lead to this scenario heading into the June 26 game against Germany:
 
Germany 6
USA 4
Portugal 1
Ghana 0
 
A Ghana-Portugal draw while the Germans are annihilating the Americans wouldn’t be enough for Portugal to advance: a draw is worth one point, and four points is definitely greater than two.
 
A win against Portugal, though, would put the U.S. at 6 points, tied with Germany, and it wouldn’t matter what Portugal does against Ghana: the U.S. and Germany would advance, Ronaldo would cry like a little baby after yet another early World Cup exit, and the Americans would have finally achieved revenge against the Ghanians.
 
(And then we’d probably get routed by the Belgians or the Russians, but let’s cross that bridge when we get to it.)
 
It’s nice to be an eternal optimist, isn’t it?